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07/21/2010 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Michaels delivered a tie-breaking, two- run, pinch-hit double and scored in the 12th inning to lift Houston over the Chicago Cubs, 4-3, in the rubber match of a three-game set.
Brandon Lyon (6-4) worked his way out of jams in the 10th and 11th innings to grab the win for the Astros, who have captured each of the first three series between the teams this season. Gustavo Chacin served up a two-out, two-run home run to Geovany Soto and survived a very shaky 12th to earn his first career save.
Angel Sanchez had three hits and drove in a run for Houston, which has won back-to-back series at Wrigley Field for the first time since the 2002-03 seasons.
Bob Howry (1-3) took the loss after allowing two runs on a pair of hits while recording only one out for the Cubs, who have lost three straight series to Houston for the first time since June 5 - July 5, 2006.
Howry opened the 12th on the hill in a 1-1 game for the Cubs and allowed back-to-back singles to Jeff Keppinger and Chris Johnson to start the frame before Jason Castro bunted into a force at third.
James Russell came on to replace Howry and got Michael Bourn to ground out, which advanced the runners to second and third.
Jeff Stevens then took over and gave up Michaels' two-run double into the alley in left-center field. Sanchez followed with a base hit to right field to plate Michaels and give Houston a 4-1 edge.
Chacin retired the first two hitters in the home half of the inning before Kosuke Fukodome walked and scored when Soto blasted his long ball to left.
Ryan Theriot kept the rally going with a single and moved to second base when pinch-hitter Jeff Baker walked before Tyler Colvin lined out to right to end the game.
The Cubs missed out chances to end the game in the ninth, 10th and 11th innings. They put runners at the corners with one out in the ninth, but could not score after Alfonso Soriano flied out to shallow center and Colvin struck out against Tim Byrdak.
The hosts loaded the bases with one out in the tenth on a Starlin Castro double and a pair of walks, but Lyon navigated his way through the jam by striking out Fukodome and getting Soto to fly out.
Chicago left runners at second and third in the 11th after Derrek Lee flied out to end the frame.
The Cubs broke up a scoreless game in the fifth on a two-out, run-scoring double by Castro that plated starting pitcher Ted Lilly, who had singled to pick up his first hit of the year earlier in the inning.
Houston start Brett Myers tossed seven innings to extend his franchise-record to 20 consecutive starts to open the season lasting at least six innings. The right-hander yielded a lone run on five hits and two walks while striking out eight and left trailing, 1-0.
Lilly took a five-hit shutout into the eighth inning before Pedro Feliz led off with a pinch-hit home run to left to tie the game.
Sanchez singled with one out to chase the left-hander from the game and bring on Sean Marshall, who retired Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence to end the frame.
Lilly allowed seven hits while walking one and fanning six over 7 1/3 innings.
Game Notes
The Astros last back-to-back series wins at Wrigley came when they took three of four from August 12-15, 2002 and two out of three from May 30-June 1, 2003. Feliz snapped an 0-for-14 drought with his long ball and is just 2-for-23 during the month of July....Roy Oswalt was the last Houston pitcher to string together 20 straight starts of six innings or more when did it from May 11- August 22, 2005...Keppinger went 2-for-5 and has 30 multi-hit games this year... Houston right-hander Felipe Paulino was diagnosed with a mild rotator cuff strain after being examined by team doctors Tuesday. He is expected to be out for approximately another four weeks...The Cubs have been held to three runs or fewer in 17 of their last 29 games...Lilly is 7-0 in nine starts against Houston since July 14, 2007. He had thrown 26 2/3 consecutive scoreless frames against the Astros until Feliz's home run...The Cubs are 12-21 in one-run games.
<< Dodgers' Kershaw, Torre, Schaefer suspended for Tuesday's incident
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball has suspended Dodgers
starter Clayton Kershaw along with manager Joe Torre and bench coach Bob
Schaefer as a result of incidents that occurred in Tuesday's game against the
San Fra
<< Ottawa inks Foligno for two years
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators signed forward Nick
Foligno to a two-year contract on Wednesday.
The 22-year-old Buffalo native slumped in his second full NHL campaign,
recording just nine goals and 26 poin
<< Report: Alabama DE Dareus declared ineligible
Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alabama defensive end Marcell Dareus has
reportedly been declared ineligible in the wake of alleged improper dealings
with sports agents.
According to the Tuscaloosa News, it is standard for a player
<< Twins to reinstate Casilla from DL
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins will reinstate
infielder Alexi Casilla from the 15-day disabled list prior to Thursday's game
against Baltimore.
Casilla has been on the DL since June 1 with bone chips in his r
Thunder sign G Ivey >>
Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oklahoma City Thunder have signed
free agent guard Royal Ivey.
As per team policy, no details of the deal were announced.
The 28-year-old Ivey split last season between Philadelphia and Milw
Ducks sign D Syvret >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks signed defenseman Danny
Syvret to a one-year contract on Wednesday.
The 25-year-old Syvret has two goals and three assists in 49 career NHL games
with Edmonton and Philadelphia. His
MacArthur a free agent after Thrashers reject contract decision >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Forward Clarke MacArthur is reportedly a free
agent after the Atlanta Thrashers walked away from an arbitrator's decision on
Wednesday.
According to TSN of Canada, the 25-year-old, a restricted free agen
Finger injury sidelines David Lee for world championships >>
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Golden State Warriors forward David Lee will
miss the upcoming world championships due to an injured middle finger on his
right hand.
Lee, who was acquired in a sign-and-trade deal from the New York Knicks
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
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