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07/14/2010 - St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - HOLE ONE - Par 4 - 376 yards: On the opening day of the Millennium Open this seemingly benign hole was rated the second most difficult on the course. A total of 36 players scored bogey or double-bogey against 15 birdies. The Swilcan Burn that curls down the right side of the fairway and across the face of the green is the cause of the problems. Unless the wind blows strongly from the west the approach is seldom more than a wedge and players should avoid the temptation to attack any pin position close to the front.
HOLE TWO - Par 4 - 453 yards: A new tee added 40 yards to this hole for the 2005 Open and brought Cheape's bunker on the left back into play at just over 300 yards. Championship pin positions are often found on the high left side of the green beyond a sharp ridge that can throw the ball left into a deep bunker or right towards the lower level of the green.
HOLE THREE - Par 4 - 397 yards: The ideal tee shot line hugs the right side, but the edge of the fairway is littered with pot bunkers and small gorse bushes. Crescent-shaped Cartgate bunker eats into the left side of the green and the putting surface falls away from a high left side.
HOLE FOUR - Par 4 - 480 yards: There are two choices from the tee: straight at the flag down a narrow strip of fairway hemmed in by dunes and gorse, or over the mounds on the left where the fairway opens out to merge with the 15th hole. But the further left the tee shot the more difficult the approach with a bunker on the left and the green sloping away to the right.
HOLE FIVE - Par 5 - 568 yards: The easiest hole on the course during most championships at St Andrews, reachable in two for today's professionals if the tee shot avoids the clutch of seven bunkers on the right between 270 and 320 yards. Fairway contours and the prevailing westerly wind gather the ball towards these traps and the aiming point is well to the left. The sheer size of the green - 92 yards from front to back - can frustrate many birdie chances.
HOLE SIX - Par 4 - 412 yards: Bunkers left and right are completely hidden from the tee as the hole drops to a lower level beyond a long, gorse-covered ridge. Shorter hitters will have to tiptoe their way through this minefield, but the power players will likely carry the ball beyond danger - unless the wind is strong out of the north-west. A ridge and hollow across the front of the green will do little to prevent a host of birdies.
HOLE SEVEN - Par 4 - 371 yards: The start of the St Andrews' loop of short par fours and two par threes where many winning scores have been forged. Most players will lay up into a flat area beyond a large mound where the seventh and 11th holes cross. From there it is just a short pitch over the vast expanse of Shell bunker to a green that runs downhill sharply from left to right.
HOLE EIGHT - Par 3 - 175 yards: If the wind swings round to the east, as it often does in summer, a simple short-iron shot can become as much as a five- iron. There are subtle contours in the largely flat green and the tough pin position is just behind the vertically-faced bunker on the left side.
HOLE NINE - Par 4 - 352 yards: Well within reach for a large percentage of players, especially with the prevailing westerly wind at their backs, the surprise is that this hole gives up far fewer birdies than it should. Gorse bushes creep close to the left edge of the green, but there is a wide expanse of open fairway between that and two bunkers on the right.
HOLE TEN - Par 4 - 380 yards: Although stretched by nearly 40 yards for the Millennium Open the green is still in reach for the longest hitters. Most players will be happy to avoid the two small bunkers on the right. Leaving a full wedge or sand-wedge approach can give a greater degree of control than chipping or putting from the fringe as the green falls away beyond a raised front.
HOLE ELEVEN - Par 3 - 174 yards: This tee shot can be anything from a nine- iron to a three-iron depending on the strength and direction of the wind. The green slopes dramatically from back to front and left to right. Come up short and the ball will run way back off the green. Too long and it drops 15 feet into a gully. Strath bunker at the front is small. Hill bunker to the left, meanwhile, is long and very deep.
HOLE TWELVE - Par 4 - 348 yards: A short but deceptively tricky par four where the bunkers that threaten the tee shot are all hidden from view. The top level of the two-tier green is only 12 paces deep and requires supreme accuracy with the approach. Many players will try to eliminate that shot by attempting to drive the green.
HOLE THIRTEEN - Par 4 465 yards: A new tee introduced for the 2005 Open brought the Coffins bunkers back into play at 280-310 yards on the left. The approach is over raised broken ground to a huge double green shared with the fifth hole. A shallow hollow filled with clinging rough on the left and a deep bunker on the right guard the entrance to the green at a hole that is consistently strong and often rates as the second most difficult on the course.
HOLE FOURTEEN - Par 5 - 618 yards: An out-of-bounds wall on the right and the group of four Beardies bunkers on the left leave a clearly defined target area off the tee. Then the direct route to the green must carry the huge expanse of Hell bunker 80 yards short. If the wind blows strongly from the east this is a genuine three-shot par five. The face of the green rises steeply before dropping away back and left.
HOLE FIFTEEN - Par 4 - 456 yards: There is little threat from Sutherland bunker in the middle of the fairway unless the wind blows strongly from the east. Beyond the bunker the fairway is pinched from both sides by low dunes and the trio of Rob's bunkers, some 80 yards short of the green, may catch downwind tee shots from the real power players. The wide entrance to the green is mounded on both sides, with sand on the left.
HOLE SIXTEEN - Par 4 - 423 yards: The fence that marks the route of the old railway into St Andrews runs all the way down the right from tee to green and there is only a narrow strip of fairway between the fence and a cluster of three bunkers known as the Principal's Nose. The percentage option is to lay up left of the bunkers, leaving a short-iron to a green that has a sharp ridge curving across the front. The green is bunkered left and behind.
HOLE SEVENTEEN - Par 4 - 455 yards: An extra 40 yards have been added to the hole that already has a reputation as the toughest par-four in championship golf. This means a minimum carry of 260 yards over the replica railway sheds to reach the ideal position on the right edge of the fairway. The green angles away from the player from front right to back left behind the vertically-faced Road bunker. An over-hit second shot will fall off the back of the green on to the road.
HOLE EIGHTEEN - Par 4 - 357 yards: There will be many players in the field capable of driving this green in the right conditions, but for anything that comes up short the choice of second shot can be vital, particularly when the pin is set just beyond the deep Valley of Sin at the front of the green. The traditional links shot, the low pitch and run, has a greater chance of success than a high-flying, fast-spinning wedge that can easily screw back off the green.
Course descriptions provided by www.opengolf.com.
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Peavy undergoes successful season-ending surgery >>
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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